Heat Pump Installation Case Study
Published October 2024
This Case Study was developed following Frame’s 2023 Pre-Investment Considerations: Diving Deeper into Assessing Future Greenhouse Gas Impact. Frame has since released its updated Project Frame GHG Impact Methodology, with further guidance.
This case study was inspired by a real investment made by a Frame member to advance the practice of forward-looking emissions impact assessment by showcasing different approaches and tools.
Impact Assessment Summary
This analysis is based on a home energy services company accelerating decarbonisation of residential buildings by insuring, installing and financing home energy hardware. By implementing sustainable energy solutions, such as air-source heat pumps, households can move away from fossil-fuelled heating to renewable, electrically powered heat. This process facilitates residential building decarbonisation.
We conducted a potential impact analysis and concluded that air-source heat pumps could have a carbon dioxide avoidance of 33-35 megatonnes (Mt) annually in the United Kingdom by 2050, and cumulative potential impact of 452-481 Mt CO2e between 2024 to 2050. Note that this is a speculative evaluation and results are reflective of a modelled large-scale deployment of air-source heat pumps for space heating in the United Kingdom, and we do not consider other types of heat pumps such as ground-source and ductless heat pumps.
Analysis & Commentary
Constructing a forward-looking GHG impact analysis necessitates several subjective decisions, including determining the necessary granularity of the analysis. The extent of detail in such analyses often depends on available resources; few firms possess the means to routinely conduct highly detailed analyses. Conversely, overly simplistic calculations carry the risk of undermining the analysis value entirely. Therefore, a balanced approach is required. This case study attempts to offer such a middle-ground approach. The accompanying commentary aims to offer additional context on the methodology used in constructing this analysis.
Note that an analysis may look different based on the goals of the investor using the analysis. An investor may have underwriting criteria that require clearing certain thresholds for potential GHG impact. These criteria would dictate a certain scope of analysis (planned, potential, timescale, etc.). Alternatively, an investor could intend to show the report to LPs, or use it as a tool to guide decision making for the startup (e.g. which of these potential markets for a platform technology is most impactful).
This Case Study was developed by the Project Frame Content Working Group with the intention to advance the practice of forward-looking emissions impact assessment by showcasing different approaches and tools. Project Frame invites investors to share their own examples and provide feedback to help us improve our case study format and impact assessment guidance by reaching out to impact@primecoalition.org.
Project Frame Case Studies include links to reports generated by the CRANE Tool, a free, open-access software aligned with Frame’s approach to future emissions impact assessment that is co-created by Prime Coalition and Rho Impact. By including CRANE reports in Case Studies, Project Frame intends to demonstrate how tools like CRANE can be used to conduct impact assessments and reduce barriers to impact accountability.
Project Frame is not a regulatory body, nor should its content be considered financial advice. Methodology guidance produced by Project Frame represents our contributors’ consensus and no one singular entity. Our work is intended for readers to review and use their best judgement to accelerate GHG mitigation with transparency and accountability.