Direct Air Capture in Commercial HVAC Case Study
Published October 2024
This case study was inspired by a real investment made by a Frame member to advance the practice of forward-looking emissions impact assessment by showcasing different approaches and tools.
Impact Assessment Summary
A proprietary modular carbon capture device has been developed that retrofits into commercial ventilation (HVAC) systems. This device scrubs CO2 and other indoor air pollutants from ventilated air, which simultaneously permanently sequesters carbon and reduces the energy needs of the existing HVAC system by allowing for higher return air usage. Whereas typical HVAC systems require large amounts of energy to heat, cool, and dehumidify outside air, the air purification achieved by this device allows buildings to recirculate indoor air, significantly reducing the need for heating up or cooling down outside air.
In this case study, we conduct a potential impact analysis which estimates the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact this technology could have based on a standardized growth trajectory that assumes this technology takes over the Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM). Our analysis concludes that the technology could have a 5 gigaton GHG reduction cumulatively by 2050 in the base case. This is a speculative evaluation and results are reflective of the large-scale deployment of the technology into the global commercial building stock.
Analysis & Commentary
This impact study uses the information available, such as unit impact of the technology, to construct a potential impact model or scenario. The company manufacturing this particular technology is still in seed stage, so there were no reliable sales forecasts to generate a credible planned impact analysis. In the event that an investor is evaluating a company and wishes to conduct a planned impact assessment, the investor can replace the number of deployed units estimated from the S-curve with the forecast deployment from the company’s projections.
In this study, we are most interested in the relative effects of the various impact pathways of the technology.
This Case Study was developed by the Project Frame Content Working Group with the intention to advance the practice of forward-looking emissions impact assessment by showcasing different approaches and tools. Project Frame invites investors to share their own examples and provide feedback to help us improve our case study format and impact assessment guidance by reaching out to impact@primecoalition.org.
Project Frame Case Studies include links to reports generated by the CRANE Tool, a free, open-access software aligned with Frame’s approach to future emissions impact assessment that is co-created by Prime Coalition and Rho Impact. By including CRANE reports in Case Studies, Project Frame intends to demonstrate how tools like CRANE can be used to conduct impact assessments and reduce barriers to impact accountability.
Project Frame is not a regulatory body, nor should its content be considered financial advice. Methodology guidance produced by Project Frame represents our contributors’ consensus and no one singular entity. Our work is intended for readers to review and use their best judgement to accelerate GHG mitigation with transparency and accountability.