Solar Planning Software & Marketplace Case Study
Published October 2024
This Case Study was developed following Frame’s 2023 Pre-Investment Considerations: Diving Deeper into Assessing Future Greenhouse Gas Impact. Frame has since released its updated Project Frame GHG Impact Methodology, with further guidance.
This case study was inspired by a real investment made by a Frame member to advance the practice of forward-looking emissions impact assessment by showcasing different approaches and tools.
Impact Assessment Summary
Company A helps accelerate the deployment of solar PV systems in the commercial and industrial (C&I) sectors through a software platform. The platform matches solar PV installers with C&I building portfolio owners looking to add renewable energy sources to their properties and portfolios, for self-consumption and/or grid supply.
Potential Impact Analysis
In the Stated Policies scenario, we find that Company A’s technology has the potential for 16.9 GtCO2e GHG impact cumulatively by 2050, taking into account an attribution factor of 30%. In the Business as Usual Scenario, representing a world where the grid intensity stays constant, potential impact reaches 50 Gt. In the Announced Pledges scenario, where the grid mix is 92% less emissive by 2050, solar deployment still has a 6.6 Gt impact potential in the same time frame.
Planned Impact Analysis
We also construct a planned impact analysis based on Company A’s business plan projections over the next 5 years. In order to achieve more realistic growth assumptions based on the market and customer pipeline, we apply downward adjustments on the growth assumptions in the company’s projections, and arrive at an estimated fleet of 1.2 GW PV capacity in 2028. This translates into 339k tCO2e avoided emissions in the Stated Policies scenario, and 307k tCO2e avoided in the Announced Pledges scenario.
Analysis & Commentary
Constructing a forward-looking GHG impact analysis necessitates several subjective decisions, including determining the necessary granularity of the analysis. The extent of detail in such analyses often depends on available resources; few firms possess the means to routinely conduct highly detailed analyses. Conversely, overly simplistic calculations carry the risk of undermining the analysis value entirely. Therefore, a balanced approach is required.
This case study attempts to offer such a middle-ground approach. The accompanying commentary aims to offer additional context on the methodology used in constructing this analysis. Note that an analysis may look different based on the goals of the investor using the analysis. An investor may have underwriting criteria that require clearing certain thresholds for potential GHG impact. These criteria may dictate a certain scope of analysis (planned, potential, etc.). Alternatively, an investor could intend to show the report to LPs, or use it as a tool to guide decision making for the startup (e.g. which of these potential markets for a platform technology is most impactful).
This Case Study was developed by the Project Frame Content Working Group with the intention to advance the practice of forward-looking emissions impact assessment by showcasing different approaches and tools. Project Frame invites investors to share their own examples and provide feedback to help us improve our case study format and impact assessment guidance by reaching out to impact@primecoalition.org.
Project Frame Case Studies include links to reports generated by the CRANE Tool, a free, open-access software aligned with Frame’s approach to future emissions impact assessment that is co-created by Prime Coalition and Rho Impact. By including CRANE reports in Case Studies, Project Frame intends to demonstrate how tools like CRANE can be used to conduct impact assessments and reduce barriers to impact accountability.
Project Frame is not a regulatory body, nor should its content be considered financial advice. Methodology guidance produced by Project Frame represents our contributors’ consensus and no one singular entity. Our work is intended for readers to review and use their best judgement to accelerate GHG mitigation with transparency and accountability.